I shall not be joining the army of newly minted experts on war or the economy. Instead, I need to point out that we are no longer living in the 1970s and that our reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf is greatly diminished since then. According to datapandas.org the leading nations for oil production in barrels per day (BPD) are as follows:
• USA 11.6m
• Russia 10.5m
• Saudi Arabia 10.2 m
• Canada 4.7m
• Iraq 4.3m
• China 4.0m
• UAE 3.0
• Brazil 2.9m
• Kuwait 2.6m
• Iran 2.5m
Sadly, for a great ancient culture, Iran is an insignificant economic force in the world. We often see how dictatorships destroy their economies to the detriment of their people. Think of Cuba or Venezuela, the latter being the country that provided oil to Great Britian while they held off the Nazis. They are currently number 20 with oil production of only 788m BPD. Similarly, any economic disruption coming from an insular and weak Iran would be minimal for US investors, even if it would be devastating for the Iranian people. China might be impacted by a loss of Iranian oil, but we do not invest in China.
The current situation is not a reason to alter portfolio composition for the majority of investors. America and its allies have more than enough energy capacity to offset potential disruptions from the Persian Gulf. If we see some volatility from the conflict, I expect it to be short-lived.
Guy
https://www.datapandas.org/ranking/oil-production-by-country