Markets continue to churn due to fears over the global oil supply resulting from threats to tankers in the Straits to Hormuz. I do not know when that problem will resolve itself, although it will be resolved.
I do not see a global recession happening due to oil prices. Instead, I anticipate that energy costs will make inflation stickier and prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates. We shortened our bond maturities and increased credit quality months ago in the belief that market participants underestimated inflationary pressures.
We are in the process of rebalancing portfolios where practical in anticipation of a sharp recovery, particularly in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.
Please call with your questions or concerns.