Can you blame anyone for being confused? Less than a week ago an article appeared in The Wall Street Journal proclaiming that "a sudden glut of oil threatens to weaken Iran's Hand in Talks." Almost immediately the ceasefire ended and oil prices spiked again.
For my part, I think the authors of the WSJ article got it right, although the claim that "there is a surprising glut of oil" misses the mark. We have written since the beginning of the latest hostilities that oil supplies expand as the price rises. Oil buyers need to adapt and they have. Just as the United States cut dependence on OPEC in the 1970s, Europe and Japan will diversify their energy sources and suppliers. The United Arab Emirates has already left OPEC. Angola, Qatar, Indonesia, and Ecuador are no longer members. Venezuela is a member but is also under some level of control by the United States that I cannot accurately assess. That they are no longer aligned with Iran seems to be true though.
The future energy landscape will not look like today just as today doesn't resemble the 1970s. In the meantime, whatever control Iran has over the Strait of Hormuz seems likely to become progressively less meaningful to investors.
* Feng, R. Kantchev, G. "A Sudden Glut of Oil Threatens to Weaken Iran's Hand in Talks." The Wall Street Journal, online, July 05, 2026. https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/a-sudden-glut-of-oil-threatens-to-weaken-irans-hand-in-talks-adfcf7c0?mod=Searchresults&pos=4&page=1. Accessed on 07.09.2026.