None of it was true. When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, experts told us that a global recession was imminent. Europeans would freeze in their houses because building the infrastructure to provide natural gas would take years. We should expect energy prices to spike so high that food insecurity would multiply. Europeans would need to choose between food and energy. None of it happened.
We saw the same thing with the Covid vaccine. A vaccine would take at least six years to become available to the public. I got vaccinated in January 2021 and I received my booster that March if I remember correctly. Funny how an emergency clears away bureaucratic obstacles. Once again, nothing that we were told by talking heads turned out to be true. Zero, zip, nada.
Invading Ukraine was a big deal. The pandemic was a global tragedy, one made worse by the overconfidence of experts. Likewise, the tariffs are a big deal. It is just that the assertions being made today are likely to prove as accurate as those made yesterday.
There is always opportunity in disruption. Those safe investments, the ones that I’m told “don’t do anything” (except pay predictable interest and promise the return of principal), will provide the dry powder for us to adjust clients’ portfolios and to take advantage of the poor decisions of others. As far as the talking heads go, little of it will be true once again.