I am not an expert on war. Neither am I an expert on the Strait of Hormuz. So, I shall limit my comments to subjects that I do know something about and that impact our clients' financial plans.
Beyond its massive and direct human toll, war creates economic uncertainty. Although everyone will be affected, there will ultimately be (economic) winners and losers. The biggest uncertainty is how long energy disruptions will persist. We do not know at this point.
What we do know is that the world is far less dependent on oil than it was in the past. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, "the amount of energy consumption per capita (per person) peaked in the late 1970s. Annual per capita energy consumption was relatively flat from the late 1980s through 2000 and has generally decreased each year since then." The numbers are better when we look at energy consumption per dollar of GDP, which has "declined nearly every year since 1949." We can see the change on the chart below.
Lastly, research from the Macro Research Board informs us that " the global intensity of oil consumption has declined dramatically in the past few decades. Last year, global oil consumption per unit of real GDP on a PPP [purchasing power parity] basis was just 35% of its level in 1970. In other words, the global economy today is thus much less sensitive to the price of oil than in the past."
The situation in the Middle East is very serious and individual companies and nations will be impacted differently. However, there is far more resilience in many countries today, particularly in the United States, than many people realize. My guess is that we are seeing the creation of multiple investment opportunities for those who think in terms of months and years instead of days and weeks.
* Independent Statistics and Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/. Accessed on 03.16.2026.
** Macro Research Board. "Economy and Policy." March 12, 2026. https://www.mrbpartners.com/latest-reports/. Accessed on 03.16.2026.