500/hour Pilots

| October 14, 2022

The subject of why I believed a few months ago that it was too early to ramp up risk and go bottom fishing came up in a conversation with my brother recently. The answer is simple enough. I have been through this before, which reminds me of a joke that my dad used to tell about pilots. It goes like this:

An executive is trying to hire a pilot to fly the company’s private jet. In an interview the executive says “I see that you want $500/hour to fly the plane. Other pilots are only asking $100/hour. Can you explain to me the difference?” The pilot responds “well, you never want to be in $500/hour weather with an $100/hour pilot.”

Young pilots will practically fly for free in order to gain enough hours in the cockpit. They have not seen the really serious weather that causes “white knuckles.” Most people writing about the markets or managing money today have never seen an aggressive Fed or experienced stagflation. Jimmy Carter nominated Paul Volker as Fed chairman 43 years ago in 1979. Most journalists and money managers only remember Alan Greenspan if they currently hold a senior position.

I have flown planes in foul weather and sailed boats in gale-force winds. I have also experienced many recessions and bear markets. I shall do my best to bring us all home safely.

Thank you for your business.